In-Person Early Voting in Indianapolis Surges Past 2018 Wave Election Levels

Hornedo Campaign: This Isn't Just National Mood. This Is What a Year of Bottom-Up Organizing Produces.

Thursday, April 16

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Indianapolis, IN — 

 

In-person early voting in Indiana's 7th Congressional District is running well above recent cycle benchmarks, including the 2018 midterm wave election that drove historic Democratic turnout across the country.

 

949 Indianapolis voters have cast in-person early ballots through April 15th. The comparison across recent cycles tells the story:

 

• 2018 — 731 in-person early votes

• 2022 — 425 in-person early votes

• 2024 — 461 in-person early votes

• 2026 — 949 in-person early votes

 

2026 is running nearly 30% above the 2018 wave election benchmark, 123% above 2022, and 106% above 2024.

 

What makes the surge particularly significant is who is showing up. Among in-person early voters identified through campaign outreach, 53% are voters who participated in the 2022 midterm primary, the most reliable benchmark for habitual Democratic primary participation. 21% are people who voted in the 2020 or 2024 primaries but skipped the 2022 primary. Most interesting, 26% are those who didn’t vote in neither the 2020, 2022, nor 2024 primaries. Nearly half of identified in-person early voters are people who don't fit the profile of a habitual Democratic primary voter.

 

The data is clear that more is at play than simply “national mood.” What we’re seeing is new voter activation.

 

"Some will say this is about the national mood," said George Hornedo, candidate for Indiana's 7th Congressional District. "But the national mood was also the story in 2018 and we're running 30% ahead of that. This is what happens when you spend a year knocking on doors, having real conversations, and building a bottom-up operation that reaches voters who have never been asked to participate before. Indianapolis voters are hungry for change. They're not waiting until Election Day to say so."

 

Analysis of the voter data shows the surge is concentrated among voters who have been the target of sustained direct voter contact, including voters who had never previously participated in a Democratic primary. The Hornedo campaign has knocked over 40,000 doors, made 1.5+ million voter outreach attempts, and had direct one-on-one conversations with more than 16,000 Indianapolis residents over the past year.

 

The campaign has built the largest Democratic field operation in Indiana in years, funded entirely by individuals and with no corporate PAC money. Four times as many in-district donors have contributed to the Hornedo campaign as to 18-year incumbent André Carson's campaign.

 

Early voting continues through May 4th and Election Day is May 5th. Voters can find their nearest voting location at georgehornedo.com/vote.

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RECORD CHECK: The Center for Effective Lawmaking ranks Congressman Carson 197th out of 220 House Democrats in legislative effectiveness. Of his claimed 22 bills signed into law, 2 are standalone enacted bills—the Ariel Rios Federal Building naming and the Kennedy-King National Commemorative Site Act. 

 

73% of Congressman Carson's campaign funding comes from PACs, much of it from corporate PACs including AES Indiana, BlackRock, and defense contractors. Only 7% comes from small-dollar donors.

 

When Julia Carson held this seat, Indianapolis was a competitive Democratic stronghold that helped power statewide wins. Under André Carson, the 7th Congressional District has become the worst in Indiana for voter turnout and Democrats haven't won statewide since 2012.